Commentaries
- Market View
The US equity markets moved modestly higher in 2011 despite a tumultuous year. Economic growth is tentative and may be dependent on the outcomes in Europe. Low interest rates and volatile equities present unusual challenges for investors. We remain cautious on bonds and believe portfolios of select equities will reward the patient and disciplined investor.
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US stocks declined sharply during the third quarter, resulting in negative year-to-date returns for all the major indexes. The Federal Reserve continues to support unusually low levels of interest rates, which fell further during the quarter. The possibility of European sovereign debt defaults continues to unsettle world financial markets.
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Economic growth has slowed and unemployment remains stubbornly high. Renewed concerns about the financial stability of several European countries have weighed on the financial markets. The US housing market has remained depressed. The financial and credit excesses created in the previous cycle are gradually being addressed but the economy is still in transition and investors should continue to expect alternating periods of financial market strength and weakness.
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The US stock market continued its strong rebound of the last two years, as the stock averages were up in the first quarter. Interest rates generally moved higher since year end. While the US economy is still growing, headwinds persist. High energy costs due to disruptions in the Mideast and the effects from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will likely present more near term challenges to a US economy straining to generate more forward momentum.
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The US economic recovery continues to build and stock prices have responded. The outlook is positive but lasting headwinds may constrain future growth. We maintain our cautious posture on bonds. Societal changes underway in China provide new investment opportunities.
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The Roth Conversion Opportunity: A significant change in the tax law in 2010
In 2010 owners of traditional IRAs and eligible retirement plans may convert all or a portion of their IRA or plan into a Roth IRA. In prior years only owners with incomes under $100,000 were eligible. Income tax is generally payable on the amount converted in the year of conversion. We recommend that you consult with your tax advisor to determine if paying taxes up front is worth the benefits provided by the Roth IRA, and we welcome the opportunity to help you in the process. The following is a general guide to introduce you to the concept and is not a substitute for the personal advice of your tax professional.
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